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Incumbency and the Economy (Townhall.com) October 9, 2012

Posted by daviddavenport in Radio Commentaries.

Many have compared this election to the contest between Hoover and Roosevelt in 1932, but they’ve all missed one crucial point: Obama is Hoover. Like Hoover, he’s the incumbent who owns the bad economy and Romney is the challenger with new ideas.

Economist Ray Fair of Yale has developed a model that has successfully predicted the outcome of all but 3 presidential elections in the last 75 years using only the economy as the key variable.

When he cranks the numbers for 2012, economic growth is weak but, with no inflation, stability is good. He has Romney winning by 1%, which is within the margin for error, and he will recalculate in late October.

This is Romney’s path to victory—to argue that the economy is still very weak under Obama and that he is the new doctor with a new course of treatment.

Please click on the link to listen to the audio:  http://townhall.com/talkradio/dailycommentary/657181

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